While the expected GI is easily computable from model parameters as ⟨GI⟩=σ−1+12γ−1 (the mean period of infectiousness is halved to reflect the assumption that the infection occurs in a random time during the period of infectiousness [17]), it can be hardly estimated based on even detailed epidemiological data. The range of models used to measure the impact of journals and articles is constantly increasing, though most are based on the level of citations. The impact factor is a measure of how often an average article in a journal has been cited. The unit of all values, except for R0, is day. For each of these locations, we used trajectories of both cumulative confirmed cases and deaths [6]. Stochastic epidemic spread in the presence of 1% of hyper-spreaders.

Later this estimate has been revised to 2–2.5 [3], which is broadly in agreement with numerous other studies that, based on official data from China, implied the range of 2–4 (see Liu et al.

In tropical countries, spread will likely follow the pattern of other respiratory illnesses and continue circulating year-round at lower levels. [11], who estimated that R0 for China lies in the range 4.7 to 6.6, overlapping with our estimated range for China: 5.6–7.3. The Vancouver firm is one of many competitors helping law enforcement track and sort what’s on social media. If the address matches an existing account you will receive an email with instructions to reset your password. 2018/29/B/NZ2/00668. Using the ‘30 days since the first case’ method for the case of the lowest considered ρ=1%, when super-spreaders (hyper-spreaders) have their infectiousness about 100 times (200 times) higher than the infectiousness of normal individuals, one obtains median Td larger than Td obtained in the deterministic model by 29% (67%), while for ‘14 days since 100 cases’ the Td overestimation is negligible, 3% (6%). Results shown in table 2 clearly indicate that the ‘14 days since 100 cases’ method is more reliable. Trajectories shown in both panels results from the same set of simulations; simulations resulting in outbreak failure were discarded. Female medical researchers publish less during the pandemic. Measures have been enacted to ensure the integrity of personal information and to protect it from misuse, loss or alteration. We declare we have no competing interest. Each histogram results from 5000 stochastic simulations starting from a single infected normal individual; trajectories resulting in outbreak failure were discarded; fraction of trajectories that resulted in epidemic extinction for given conditions is given as  p^ext. [9] (m = 2, n = 2) and Wu et al. Endo et al. One may observe that the histograms calculated using the ‘30 days since the first case’ method are broader than those calculated using the ‘14 days since 100 cases’ method, and the width of all histograms increases with increasing infectiousness (which is set inversely proportional to ρ). [12], Wallinga & Lipsitch [13] and Kochańczyk et al. As expected, Td estimates using ‘30 days since the first case’ method in most cases are larger and more dispersed (in range 1.92–12.6) than the estimates based on the primary method (1.86–2.88). Royal Society Open Science, Sept. 16, 2020, People with glasses may be less likely to be infected. I plan to vote by mail. (b) Proportion of infections transmitted by hyper-spreaders among all transmission events over time. The lower bound has been obtained using the model variant with n=2 (two ‘infectious’ substates), whereas the upper bound results from the model with n=1 (one ‘infectious’ substate), figure 1c.

We thank the reviewers whose comments helped us to improve the manuscript. Infection rate coefficient of hyper-spreaders was set βh = 198 × βn (where βn is the infection rate coefficient for normal spreaders), which assures that in the deterministic limit 66.7% of infections are transmitted by hyper-spreaders. [10,17] and Li et al. It is, however, important to note that for China the ‘14 days since 100 cases’ method estimate (chosen in our study and giving R0(Td) in range 5.6–7.3) was possible on 4 February 2020, before the surge of the epidemic in Europe and USA, and more than one month ahead of the first European country-wide lockdown that was imposed in Italy (9 March 2020). The cases-based doubling time for China, 2.36, is consistent with the value of 2.4 reported by Sanche et al. In figure 3, we show histograms of Td calculated using either the ‘14 days since 100 cases’ method or the ‘30 days since the first case’ method. We discarded initial parts of trajectories with less than 100 confirmed cases (or 10 registered fatalities) and used two-week-long periods to strike a balance between: (i) analysis of epidemic progression when stochastic effects associated with individual transmission events, including super-spreading, are relatively small (see stochastic simulation trajectories in electronic supplementary material, figure 2a), and (ii) analysis of the exponential phase of epidemic progression, which is relatively short due to imposition of restrictions. Italy and Germany, where, in the early exponential phase, spatial heterogeneity of registered cases had been evident [21,22]. [26]), in which it is assumed that the infection occurs at the end of the period of infectiousness, not at a random point of this period. conceived study and wrote manuscript. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. This enabled us to identify the reported increase of confirmed cases with the transfer of the individuals from the (last substate of the) ‘infectious’ compartment to the ‘removed’ compartment of the SEIR model. [16]), exceed our model prediction obtained after removing 66.7% of transmissions by hyper-spreaders, suggesting that the fraction of transmissions for which hyper-spreaders are responsible can be even larger. conceived study, performed model and data analysis, prepared figures and wrote manuscript; F.G. conceived study, performed model analysis and prepared figures; T.L. Articles from Royal Society Open Science are provided here courtesy of The Royal Society. A summary in table 1 shows that the lower R0 estimates follow from much longer estimates of Td. Of the 10 Canadian cities studied, five, including Toronto and Montreal, did not take equity into consideration when planning service changes, and the changes made to their public transit service hit poorer areas the hardest. aThe 〈GI〉 value is not given in the article but calculated from the assumed values of 1/σ and 1/γ as ⟨GI⟩=1/σ+12/γ [18]. Tyee Poll: How Are You Planning to Cast Your Ballot This Election? Estimation of the doubling time and the resulting basic reproduction number R0. Researchers in Japan have found that a particular kind of ultraviolet light — ultraviolet, with a wavelength of 222 nanometres — can effectively kill SARS-CoV-2. Further to the provision of the Personal Information Protection Act, personal information is kept confidential by TheTyee.ca and will not be sold, traded, released, shared or distributed to any other individuals, organizations or agencies without prior consent or notification. Then, we estimated the range of R0 as a function of the doubling time Td using a formula that takes into account the mean latent and infectious period, 1/σ and 1/γ, respectively, as well as the shape parameters m and n, see equation (4.8) in Methods. Figure 2. Model parameters used for simulations in both panels: (m,n)=(6,1), (1/σ,1/γ)=(5.28 days,2.9 days).

Gitxsan and Wet’suwet’en members join day of action to support Ontario nation locked in conflict over development on its traditional territory. (7.0 days) [15], Ma et al. For decreasing proportions of super- and hyper-spreaders (from left, except the shared leftmost panel with ρ = 0, to right), their infection rate coefficient β has been reduced to give the same deterministic Td=2 days (vertical dotted grey lines). Instead, downvote, or flag suspect activity, Attempt to guess other commenters’ real-life identities.

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