This approach could be especially problematic if U.S. actions simply shift emissions overseas. Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866 Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, United States Government . Second, modelers have wide latitude in choosing the inputs that determine model outputs. First, IAMs forecast climate change and the associated economic impacts over immense timespans vastly exceeding the limits of empirical validation.
By fiddling with non-validated climate parameters, made-up damage functions, and discount rates, modelers can get just about any result they desire. Ben Lieberman For example, for its proposed regulations for existing power plants, the EPA estimated climate benefits amounting to $30 billion in 2030. The chart below shows the range and best estimate of IWG’s sensitivity analysis, based on Row and Baker (2007), with the range and average of recent literature. There has been little net warming since the previous big El Niño in 1998. Associate Editors And during the second Obama administration, social cost of carbon estimates rose dramatically. For example, to compute social cost of carbon values, the Obama administration’s Interagency Working Group (IWG) ran three models—known as FUND, DICE, and PAGE—out to the year 2300. Governments can obtain consensus SCC estimates from advisory committees (e.g., Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, U.S. Government (IWG), 2010, 2016), but I contend that academic SCC estimates made in say, 2050, will still First, the IWG’s climate sensitivity assumptions are outdated and do not reflect more recent, empirically-based estimates, which are about 40 percent lower. Discernible in neither economic nor meteorological data, social cost values are guesstimates produced by computer programs called “integrated assessment models” (IAMs).
John Berlau Council of Economic Advisers Council on Environmental Quality Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Energy Department of Transportation Michaels also discussed the IWG’s reliance on models that are structurally biased because they lack a significant carbon dioxide fertilization benefit. Scooter Schaefer, Contributors “Had the more comprehensive CO2 fertilization benefit identified by Idso (2013) been incorporated in all the IAMs, the three-model average SCC used by the IWG would have been greatly lowered, and likely even become negative in some IAM/discount rate combinations,” Michaels argued. Greenstone knocks down a strawman when he claims critics believe the IWG should “only reflect damages that are projected to occur in the United States” despite climate change being a global issue of great concern to many countries. The use of a global social cost of carbon to estimate benefits means that agencies will adopt regulations that could cost Americans more than they receive in climate-related benefits. Fred L. Smith, Jr. The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary estimate of the damages supposedly caused by an incremental ton of carbon dioxide emitted in a given year. Although 2016 was the warmest year in the instrument record, much of that warming was due to a very strong El Niño, which has subsided.
Jessica Melugin The warming slowdown (“pause”) during the past 20 years is observable in both the University of Alabama Huntsville satellite record and the Hadley Center Climate Research Unit surface record. Patrick Hedger Ryan Radia OMB Circular A-4, a directive from the White House Office of Management and Budget on how agencies should estimate regulatory costs and benefits, states: Your analysis should focus on benefits and costs that accrue to citizens and residents of the United States. Lower climate sensitivity not only means less warming and smaller climate impacts, but also less risk of catastrophic outcomes such as ice sheet collapse. It was under Obama that the government started taking a consolidated approach, with an Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon set up in 2009 to develop a single set of estimates that could be incorporated into US policymaking. However, the DICE and PAGE models have virtually no fertilization benefit. Instead, the IWG flouted OMB Circular A-4. Patrick J. Michaels The IWG did exactly the reverse. Marlo Lewis, Jr. Marc Scribner Where you choose to evaluate a regulation that is likely to have effects beyond the borders of the United States, these effects should be reported separately. Angela Logomasini Wayne Crews 2010 interagency technical support document (TSD) (Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon 2010). Through that process the interagency group selected four SCC values for use in … The data suggest the divergence between the modeled climate and the real climate will start to grow once again.
Based on crop yield data from carbon dioxide enrichment experiments and Food and Agriculture Organization economic data on 45 major food crops, Craig Idso estimates that carbon dioxide fertilization added $3.2 trillion to the value of global agricultural output since 1961. What they seem to desire are big, scary numbers to justify costly regulations. By reporting only global but not domestic estimates, the IWG not only allows but requires agencies to dramatically inflate the perceived benefit-cost ratio of their regulations.
The appropriateness of using any particular discount rate is certainly debatable, but beside the point.
Second, modelers have wide latitude in choosing the inputs that determine model outputs.
Michaels further noted that satellite and balloon-sensed bulk atmospheric temperatures over the past 38 years have warmed about half as much as projected by climate models. Social cost estimation is inherently speculative for two reasons.
Interagency Working Grp. Examining the Social Cost of Carbon, 20170310 - Dayaratna 7 percent discount rate DICE FUND_600x524.jpg, 20170301 - Michaels Climate Sensitivity in Recent Studies v Row Baker, Feb 28, 2017_600x775.jpg, 20170301 - Michaels redo Christy models v observations Feb 28, 2017_600x486.jpg, 20170301 - Michaels HAD CRUT and UAH Temperatures 1997-2017_600x751.jpg, Louisiana Frog Feud Illustrates Regulatory Threat to Property Rights and Economic Freedom, EPA Encourages Innovation, Levels Playing Field for Sources Reducing Hazardous Air Emissions, In Debate, Biden Confirms That He Is for and Against the Green New Deal, Fuel Economy: DOJ's Defense of the One National Program Rule, Part 2, House Oversight Subcommittee Holds Climate Policy Hearing. Matthew Adams
It also allows agencies to “consider a further sensitivity analysis” using a rate lower than 3 percent.
Through that process the interagency group selected four SCC values for use in …
Other things equal, the lower the rate used to discount the present value of future climate damages, the higher the cost. The interagency process that developed the original U.S. governments SCC estimates is described in the 2010 interagency technical support document (TSD) (Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon 2010). Three values are based on the average SCC from three integrated assessment models (IAMs), at discount rates of 2.5, 3, and 5 percent. Ryan Young, Copyright © 2020 Competitive Enterprise Institute, Science Committee Spotlights Major Flaws in Calculating 'Social Cost' of Carbon Dioxide, At What Cost?
The FUND model also includes a significant, albeit much smaller, carbon dioxide benefit.
Greg Conko Michelle Minton
With participation by . Gayer explains: The difference between global and domestic benefits of greenhouse gas regulations is significant, as the global measure is 4 to 14 times greater than the estimated domestic measure. Running the models with a 7 percent discount rate, as required by OMB Circular A-4 but omitted by the IWG, reduces the estimated cost by 75 percent compared to a 3 percent discount rate.
Through that process the interagency group selected four SCC values for use in regulatory analyses.
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